How weather impacts NFL betting

If you’re reading this then there’s a good chance you’re in the UK. I have a theory that British bettors perhaps have less understanding of how adverse weather impacts betting because for our sports, football, rugby, cricket, we’d almost certainly see games called off if weather got anywhere near being close enough to impact the quality of play.

The most misunderstood weather factor in NFL games

The reality is that weather is hugely impactful on NFL games, but often not quite how you think. When people are talking about adverse weather they instantly think of snow or freezing temperatures when they often effect on-field performance less than something more mundane, more normal, in wind.

How wind affects NFL passing, kicking and totals

Heavy wind can cause absolute chaos in a game. If you’re getting big gusts of wind then this impacts passing and all forms of kicking.

Why wind hurts quarterbacks and passing efficiency

The quarterbacks won’t be able to put the same speed on their passes, and ball placement is naturally more difficult in high winds too. Deep throws become far more hazardous, and are more likely to miss their target, or get intercepted by the defense. Sideline routes are also more difficult for the QB, so expect to see fewer of those and a decrease in pass completion.

Wind impact on field goals, punts and game totals

Kicking becomes a serious issue in high winds too, both in terms of field goals and extra points, but also punting. There are sharp drops in field goal accuracy once wind exceeds 15mph and data suggests that games with wind under 20mph are more likely to go Under the points total.

Why windy NFL games often lead to lower scoring

If it’s hard to throw deep or be accurate with kicking then coaches will be more conservative, there’ll be running of the ball, which means a quicker games and fewer opportunities for explosive scoring.

Using wind forecasts to find betting value

Looking ahead at this weekend the wind in the Bills game in Cleveland against the Browns is expected to be around 18mph, so this could be a game that sees an increase in rushing and fewer plays.

Does rain really affect NFL scoring?

Heavy rain is another aspect that bettors often overreact too. In this day and age teams have excellent drainage in their stadiums and there won’t be any real issue with the turf. That only really leaves handling errors as a potential issue. However, players are well versed in playing in rain by now and the player’s gloves are so sticky now that even you or I could catch a simple pass.

When rain creates value in NFL betting markets

Sometimes you will see handling errors but they’re not common and you could see fewer deep balls than regularly but it shouldn’t impact scoring hugely. There’s a potential for value in betting heavy rain games is they odds have been priced too aggressively.

This weekend the Patriots face the Ravens in Baltimore. With winds of just 10mph and a slight chance of rain, I’d be very keen to attack this game if the forecast shows rain being more likely as the game draws closer.

Why cold weather is overrated in NFL betting

Cold weather is another overrated factor in games. Most players are familiar with playing in cold environments at this stage and the bigger risks come from potential muscle injuries than game performance. You might see a slight drop in field goal percentages in sub-zero weather but it’s unlikely to affect passing numbers at all.

Does snow really lower scoring in the NFL?

Then there’s snow. It’s the most dramatic, and in my view, fun, way to view NFL games. Snow has produced some iconic moments through the years, who can forget Calvin Johnson with a face full of snow? However, it doesn’t really impact scoring negatively. For every dropped pass you might see a missed tackle. Again, technology has played a part here, modern boots are equipped for this and with heated fields it’s also far less impactful. There is an advantage for teams who play in these conditions regularly, such as the Bills, so it’s always worth considering them in those conditions.

Why snow causes market overreaction

This weekend there’s a slight chance of snows in the Vikings at Giants. If that comes to pass then there’s a real chance of finding value here. Bookies and bettors will be overreacting to seeing MetLife covered in snow, meaning we might see Unders get overbet, meaning there’ll be value in smashing the Over.

How heat and humidity impact NFL games and player props

Finally, you have the flipside of that, aggressive heat and humidity. This is something that isn’t really thought about enough but when it’s scorching hot, it means we’re more likely to see fatigue particularly in defenses. On the offensive side of the ball we might also see more rotation meaning snap counts could decrease, impacting player props.

There’s no overly hot games this weekend but always look out for the Dolphins here. Miami’s heat can cause serious issues for visiting teams, especially if they’re from cities with cooler climates. Always consider live betting Overs or betting on second-half points totals in extreme heat.

Why dome stadiums remove weather volatility

Of course, none of this matters when you’re playing in a dome and the wind and snow can’t impact you at all. If the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings or New Orleans Saints are on their home field then you don’t need to worry.

There’s going to be no volatility from weather and we are more likely to see higher numbers, in terms of game total as well as passing and kicking numbers. It’s important to also caveat this by saying the Dallas Cowboys can retract their roof, which they almost certainly will do if the climate is going to impact the game. However, if it’s not clear on the status of the roof, then we could see late movement to the lines.

So when Sunday comes see how each stadium is looking weather-wise, there are some great resources on sites like NFL Weather that can help. Then find the value, whack on your acca, stick it on Stacked and hopefully get a big win.

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The importance of tracking your bets I’ve been working in the sports betting industry for a long time now. I’ve worked for an operator, an affiliate and now as a freelancer. I’ve worked both as a marketeer creating campaigns based around US sports and tennis, been involved with social media, helped build websites from the ground up, commissioned content, and now, create the content myself. With my experience in the industry I often get messaged on LinkedIn, via email or in my DMs on Twitter, to discuss roles or promote various new products. Filtering the Signal from the Noise There’s a lot of charlatans in this business but I refuse to promote anything that I don’t think is a good product, and isn’t something that I’d use myself. Which is why, in my first call with the Stacked guys, I was instantly interested in taking it for a spin. I’ve learned a lot in betting but the number one most important thing that I’ve realised is how essential bet tracking is. I don’t mean that as an analyst, who gives out tips. I mean that as a punter. The Reality of Wins vs. Losses Winning bets is a great feeling, whether that’s putting a single on something you’re certain will happen in the game, or whacking on an acca across multiple matches, we all remember the big wins. What we don’t often remember are the losses, the narrow defeats, or the times we fail to win a single leg of a Bet Builder. The Analytics Revolution in Sports If you’re reading this then I know you’re a huge sports fan, so let’s put this in that context. What is the single biggest driver in improved sporting performance over the past fifty years, across every single sport? An understanding of nutrition has really helped, as have leaps forward in technology, but the area which has improved performance most has been the advancement of analytics. By having evidence about areas of strengths and weaknesses, it’s allowed athletes to work upon them, and best use their attributes to succeed. Applying Data Science to Your Betting Strategy Sports betting is no different. What bets are you winning on? Do you have a better hit rate when you back player props or bet against the spread? When you’re betting player props are you more efficient at betting on receiving lines or rushing lines? When you bet on your own team does your knowledge help you win more than you lose, or does your passion cause you to be too optimistic and lose bets? You simply can’t be successful in the long term as a bettor without understanding what you’re good at, and what you’re bad at. Likewise, if you follow a tipster, or just copy your mate’s bets, then it’s good to know which areas they excel in too. The Old Way: The Spreadsheet Grind Years ago I found an excel spreadsheet online. I customised it to include every bet type I ever bet on, every sportsbook I bet with, every major sport and every league I ever bet on. I have spent countless hours adding various bets into this spreadsheet, so many that it takes an absolute age to load. The knowledge of my strengths and my weaknesses has been hugely informative. I know I’m profitable on League One, Anytime Touchdown bets in the 5/1 or above range but poor at both teams to score four-folds, and betting on tennis. Smarter, Safer Betting with Stacked So imagine how impressed I was when I was on that call with the Stacked team and I realised how easily the app can help me track bets. We also spoke of how importantly we value responsible gambling, something that I’ve really focused on in my career. Betting on the NFL or on football is great fun, but it’s imperative that you are aware of the dangers. Upon trying Stacked in beta form, I knew the app could help with that. You can easily view all your bets, across multiple bookies, and realise what you’re best at betting on. More importantly, you can work out what you’re not good at betting on. It’s one of the few innovations in the sports betting space in recent years that I genuinely think encourages smart sports betting. Innovation That Actually Works There are other things that impressed me of course, tracking bets in-play is useful, especially if you’re on with multiple books and don’t want to switch app every two minutes to check. I was also genuinely shocked at how well the AI on the Stacked app read my screenshots and uploaded them, which will save hours of manually typing stuff in if you’re a spreadsheet user like myself. I fundamentally believe that tracking bets is the best thing you can do as a regular punter. Whether that’s because you are a frequent bettor who wants to win in the long term, or a more casual player who just wants to see how you do every weekend. The Future of Smart Tracking As you might have realised already, I’m going to be working with Stacked going forward. I was hugely impressed by their mission statement and most importantly, the app itself, especially given the improvements and extra features that I know are coming in the future. Over the next weeks and months I’m going to be guiding you through ways to be smarter with your betting, particularly through the lens of the NFL, a sport I fell in love with when I was at uni, but more on that another day.